An unexpected trend

There are two crowning achievements in the sport of basketball: the MVP and the Larry O’Brien Trophy, which is given to the winner of the NBA Finals.

A select few legends of the league won both in the same season. Michael Jordan four times (1991, 1992, 1996, and 1998). LeBron James in 2012 and 2013. In total, ten players accomplished it a total of15 times in the league’s 76-year history.

winning MVP is not indicative of a team achieving NBA Finals success

But as strongly as players desire both accomplishments, the data suggests that winning MVP is not indicative of a team achieving NBA Finals success. VegasSlotsOnline News dug into the nitty gritty to determine which players and teams could be proof positive of that in the 2023-24 campaign.

Winning MVP bad NBA Finals dreams

There have been 20 NBA Finals participants in the last 10 years (one winner and one loser every year). Only nine (45%) of those participants were headlined by a player who finished top three in MVP voting that season, meaning there’s a stronger chance of a team without an MVP candidate reaching the Finals than there is of one with a top-three finisher doing so.

of the ten most recent participants, only two employed players who were in the top three in MVP

The data becomes more diametrically opposed when looking at the last five years. Of the ten most recent participants, only two employed players who were in the top three in MVP results: LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers in 2020, and Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in 2023. In both instances, the player finished second in MVP voting and the team won the NBA Finals.

Removing LeBron – widely regarded as the best or second-best basketball player ever and therefore making him a statistical anomaly – from the past ten years also causes the number of Finals teams with MVP candidates to fall from nine to just three (15%). 

Below is a list showing players who were in the MVP discussion and who made the NBA Finals in the same season over the last 10 years.

Only three players are represented in the chart: LeBron, Jokic, and Steph Curry. Curry is a consensus top-20 player of all time, and Jokic is the beacon of hope for “regular” NBA players.

Who should be worried?

The data suggests that modern NBA teams find more success when they don’t have an out-and-out star dominating the proceedings.

An explanation for that is that teams nowadays are more talented than they were in years past and the workload is shared. Another is that teams are likely to have more stars than in previous decades, where all-NBA players were spaced relatively evenly throughout the league and surrounded by role players.

Whatever the explanation, it’s clear that betting on a player to win the MVP and NBA Finals in the same season is based on little more than blind hope.

The number one candidate is the man who defied the odds last season: Jokic.

So which teams and players are most likely to fall victim to this trend in 2023-24? The number one candidate is the man who defied the odds last season: Jokic. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, he’s the favorite to win the MVP and the Nuggets are third in NBA Finals odds. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is third in MVP odds, while the Milwaukee Bucks are the co-favorites for the title. Jayson Tatum is fourth in MVP odds and his Boston Celtics are the other co-favorites for the league championship.

Curry is sixth in MVP odds, and the Golden State Warriors are sixth in Finals odds. Kevin Durant is seventh in MVP odds and his Phoenix Suns are fourth in Finals odds.

Joel Embiid, Devin Booker, and Anthony Davis are also candidates to be actively involved in both conversations. For that reason, fans of these teams and players should hope their efforts are fully funneled into winning the championship. Winning the MVP could be a kiss of death.