And then there were two?
The NFL MVP award now appears to be a two-horse race between two quarterbacks: the San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy, and the Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott.
Although both men are just a month away from potentially cementing their status as the most valuable player in the NFL, both also come from unsuspecting backgrounds as MVP candidates.
How did we get to this point, and who deserves to win MVP, Purdy or Dak? Let’s dive into each man’s case.
Prescott vs. Purdy: MVP Comparison
| Name | Dak Prescott | Brock Purdy |
| MVP Betting Odds | +150 | +200 |
| Passing Yards | 3,505 (third) | 3,553 (second) |
| Touchdowns | 28 (first) | 25 (t-second) |
| Interceptions | six | seven |
| Completion Percentage | 69.3% (fourth) | 70.2% (first) |
| Yards per Attempt | 7.8 (fourth) | 9.9 (first) |
| QBR | 74.6 (second) | 74.7 (first) |
| Team Record | 10-3 (tie, first NFC) | 10-3 (tie, first NFC) |
| Head-to-Head Matchup | 14-24, 153 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions | 17-24, 252 yards, four touchdowns |
Making the case for Prescott
According to BetMGM, Prescott is the MVP favorite at +150. Purdy is close behind at +200, while Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are both +700.
There’s no question that Dak is the hottest player in the league and playing the best football of his entire career. The progression of his MVP betting odds is a reflection of that.
Just one month ago, BetMGM had Dak at +4000 to win the MVP. Three weeks ago he was +1800, two weeks ago he was +800, and last week he was +300.
Although Prescott is only 30 years old, he’s the longest-tenured quarterback with one NFL team following eight years of service to the Dallas Cowboys.
The former fourth-round pick has won several awards, including the 2016 Rookie of the Year, the Walter Payton Man of the Year, and two Pro Bowl nominations. However, he’s never made an All-Pro team and never finished better than sixth in MVP voting (2016).
Prescott put his game into fifth gear during a Week 8 game against the Los Angeles Rams.
After a rather unassuming start to the season, Prescott put his game into fifth gear during a Week 8 game against the Los Angeles Rams. In his last seven games (including the Rams game), he averaged 310.3 passing yards and racked up 22 touchdowns and only two interceptions.
The Cowboys also won seven of their last eight games and now lead the NFC East following a 33-13 win against the previous leaders, the Philadelphia Eagles. They’re also tied for the best record in the NFC with the San Francisco 49ers.
The major blemish on his resume is a Week 5 loss to the 49ers, during which the team lost 42-10 and Purdy thoroughly outplayed him. That version of the Cowboys was different from the current one, but it stands out nonetheless.
Making the case for Purdy
Brock Purdy took the world by storm last year as he led the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game during his rookie season despite being “Mr. Irrelevant,” or the last pick in the NFL Draft.
Though he flew under the radar in college, Purdy has answered nearly every call during his professional career. This season alone he has 25 touchdowns and only seven interceptions with a league leading QBR of 74.7.
Purdy went through a rough stretch in the middle of the season, which resulted in the 49ers’ three losses (all consecutively). During those weeks, he averaged 254 yards and threw three touchdowns and five interceptions.
He’s also led marquee wins over the Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Eagles.
In the ten games on either side (all wins), he’s been close to lights-out, averaging 279.1 yards and tossing 22 touchdowns to two interceptions. He’s also led marquee wins over the Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Eagles.
Purdy falls under criticism through no fault of his own, but because of the team around him.
Running back Christian McCaffrey is another prominent MVP candidate and scored at least one touchdown in 11 of 13 games, while coach Kyle Shanahan has turned players like Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub into MVP candidates (and, in Ryan’s case, an MVP winner). Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle are also former first-team All-Pros and fill out what is considered the most talented offense in the league.
With control of the first seed in the NFC, the 49ers are the current Super Bowl favorites (+260).
There’s still time for both Prescott and Purdy to move ahead or take a step back in the race for NFL MVP, but if either of them wins, they will have literally defied the odds.