Djokovic on course for title number 8

The final four in the Men’s singles will be down to two by this evening. Crunch time for the men has arrived in SW19.

Djokovic coming up against Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti

Both matches take place on Centre Court (starting 2:30pm UK time), with last year’s winner, Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz, taking on Russia’s Daniil Medvedev, and Serbia’s Novak Djokovic coming up against Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti.

We preview both semifinals below and take a look at the potential for some value bets:

Semi-final 1: Carlos Alcaraz (3) v Daniil Medvedev (5)

Alcaraz and Medvedev meet today (Friday) for the seventh time and for the third time at Wimbledon. As things stand, Alcaraz leads 4-2 in their head-to-heads and has won four of the last five, but their first-ever meeting at Wimbledon back in 2021 was one to forget for the young Spaniard. ?

In 2021, the 18-year-old Alcaraz was a rookie on the ATP tour and was torn apart by the Russian, who coasted to a 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 win. But how things have changed. When the pair met in last summer’s Wimbledon semifinals, it was the young Spaniard who won in three sets; his 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 victory being achieved with the minimum of fuss.

While Medvedev avenged that defeat just two months later – winning 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 in the US Open semifinal – Alcaraz has since secured straight-set victories over the Russian in the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals and this year’s Indian Wells.

Alcaraz was unspectacular in his opening four matches

Partly as a result of the above and because he’s the current Wimbledon and French Open champion, Alcaraz is pitched at -320 for the win, while Medvedev is listed at a more generous +250. Worth noting, though, is that Alcaraz was unspectacular in his opening four matches at this Wimbledon and also had to come from a set down to beat Tommy Paul 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 in his quarterfinal.

Medvedev’s route to the final has been surprisingly serene and after an ordinary run of form in 2023, he has again started to show the quality that took him into the world’s top three. While the 28-year-old Russian is yet to win a title this year, he has played himself into form, particularly over the last fortnight, and will be a dangerous opponent for Alcaraz.

Wins for Medvedev over Aleksandar Kovacevic, Alexandre Muller, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Grigor Dimitrov set up a quarterfinal with Jannik Sinner, which he won in five sets (6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 2-6, 6-3).

For Medvedev to take this match deep he will need to find his A-game, and cannot afford to go deep beyond his baseline and trade blows with Alcaraz as it brings into play the Spaniard’s ultra-effective drop-shot. Instead, Medvedev must be the aggressor and play outside of his comfort zone. If he can do that, then he is capable of making it very tricky for Alcaraz.    

PICK: Alcaraz to win in four sets (+275)

Semi-final 2: Lorenzo Musetti (25) v Novak Djokovic (2)

It’s not been a stellar Wimbledon for Novak Djokovic so far, but still, the 37-year-old Serb is the man to beat. While his round-of-16 match with Holger Rune was played out in a feisty atmosphere, Djokovic still won in three sets (6-3, 6-4, 6-2) and then a walkover over an injured Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals set up this semi with Lorenzo Musetti.

Djokovic, the second seed, is a very short -700 to beat Musetti, who is a +500 outsider to make it to the final. This is the furthest the Italian has ever progressed in a Grand Slam.

But while Musetti may lack top-level experience, he has played Djokovic six times already in his career. Unsurprisingly, the Serb leads 5-1 in their head-to-heads but on the two occasions they have met at a Grand Slam (both times at the French) the matches have gone to five sets. In both, the Italian played well for four sets before fading badly in the fifth. Musetti’s one win came in the 2023 Monte Carlo Master, where he won in three sets (4-6, 7-5, 6-4).

On the downside, Musetti’s record on grass has been generally poor – he has tended to favor the slower surfaces – but in 2023 managed to turn that stat around. At the start of that year, his record on grass was 0-4, but now it’s a much more impressive 18-5. This summer alone Musetti is 12-2 on grass, which includes a run to the final in this summer’s Queen’s Club Championships in addition to his five wins at Wimbledon.

That said, the current world No. 25 has had to battle all the way to make it to this semifinal. He is without a straight-sets victory and two of his five matches have gone to five sets.

Djokovic’s route to the semifinals has been low-key by his sky-high standards yet still fairly routine. The current world No. 2 dropped sets to both Jake Fearnley and Alexei Popyrin in the early rounds before discovering some of his best form in the last 16 to overcome Rune and a perceived hostile element of the Centre Court crowd.

the Serb saw it as an excuse to boo

While the fans were, in fact, chanting an elongated version of Rune’s name, the Serb saw it as an excuse to boo and was unable to hide his anger in the post-match interviews. On a more positive note, the Serb’s quarterfinal walkover allowed him an extra day’s rest, which after his recent knee op will have been welcomed.

While Musetti has done very well to get this far in the tournament, it’s hard to make a solid case for the 22-year-old Italian making it to Sunday’s final. His skills on grass have improved massively over the last 18 months, but in Djokovic, he faces one of the game’s great grass-court players. While the Serb is now in the later stages of his career, he is showing no signs of slowing up.

Musetti’s relatively weak serve will come under more pressure than it has done at any stage of the tournament, but long, drawn-out rallies will also favor Djokovic. In summary, don’t be too surprised if the Serb gets the job done in straight sets but, on the flip side, if the Italian can somehow take the game deep, Djokovic’s injured knee may be a factor.

PICK:   Djokovic to win in straight sets (+110)