Pop-up blocker won’t work this time
The surge of traffic to online election markets in the leadup to the 2024 US presidential election has brought one site some unwanted attention. On Friday, French gambling regulator ANJ blocked the country’s residents from using crypto-based prediction market Polymarket.
those in France and the United States, among other countries, were not permitted to use the platform
ANJ did not issue a press release or similar proclamation, but instead relied on Polymarket to notify users with a pop-up message when they loaded the site. The message indicated that those in France and the United States, among other countries, were not permitted to use the platform.
While the message reads, in part: “Use of measures to circumvent or attempt to circumvent these restrictions is strictly prohibited,” French crypto industry journalist Grégory Raymond tweeted that he had no problem using a VPN to place a bet on Polymarket.
Buy and trade predictions
Polymarket, founded in 2020, is a cryptocurrency-only gambling site on which people can wager on the outcome of world events. It has become particularly popular for betting on US elections.
It is not a sportsbook where users bet against the house. Instead, it is a prediction trading market. Similar to trading stock, users buy shares in specific event outcomes such as Donald Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election.
Shares are purchased in increments of one cent between $0.01 and $0.99. As more and more people buy shares in an outcome, the price of that outcome increases. Users can buy and sell at any time before the outcome is determined – if, say, someone buys shares at $0.50 and they go up to $0.55, the user can sell for a 10% profit (less fees).
When the event outcome has been determined, everyone holding “yes” shares receives $1 per share. Those holding “no” shares are out of luck.
Megawhale had a crystal ball
In addition to Polymarket’s general popularity during this election cycle, the site garnered outsized attention after a French “whale” bet tens of millions of dollars that Trump would win the election. Reports vary that the trader named “Theo” wagered anywhere from $28m to $40m and stood to win over $80m.
had his own methodology and was convinced Donald Trump would emerge victorious
The bets moved the market well in Trump’s favor at a time when polls had he and Vice President Kamala Harris about even. Some feared that the high volume of bets was an attempt to manipulate the market and public perception, but Theo insisted that he just had his own methodology and was convinced Donald Trump would emerge victorious.
This put Polymarket in ANJ’s crosshairs, and it is now investigating the platform to determine whether it has run afoul of France’s gambling regulations or if there was insider trading. In the meantime, the regulator is preventing those in France from placing bets.
